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☆ Live Updates: U.S. Job Growth Expected to Remain Robust
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-05 | by ( Talmon Joseph Smith | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

PinnedWith the year’s first quarter in the books, the Labor Department will release its latest update on the labor market Friday morning. Economists expect the March report to show that over 200,000 jobs were added for the fourth consecutive month, according to a Bloomberg survey. The report is expected to show that the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8 percent from 3.9 percent in February. It’s a remarkable change from a year ago, when top financial analysts were largely convinced that a recession was only months away. Nevertheless, there is “still absolutely nothing happening” in key measures of long-run jobless claims, said Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, which studies the labor market.

Persons: ”, Joe Davis, Guy Berger Organizations: Labor Department, Bloomberg, Federal, Vanguard, Federal Reserve, Glass Institute Locations: U.S

Inflation, as measured by an index closely followed by the Federal Reserve, dipped slightly in line with estimates in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. The personal consumption price expenditures index rose 0.4% for the month, unchanged from August, while rising 3.4% on an annual basis, down from 3.5% a month earlier. The narrower core index, excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.3% for the month, in line with expectations but up from the 0.1% increase in August. For the year, the core index is running at 3.7%, an improvement from the 3.9% registered a month ago. The report showed that spending also increased, by 0.7%, while incomes rose by 0.3%,“Core Inflation: the three month annualized pace of core PCE slowed to 2.4% y/y.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Mark Vitner, Joe Davis, Andrew Patterson, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, PCE, RSM, Fed, Crescent Capital, Vanguard, Global, “ Locations: Europe

Inflation showed its sticky nature in July, rising slightly as increases in services costs offset a decline in the price of goods, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.3% for the 12-month period. The core index, stripping out energy and food costs, rose 0.2% and 4.2%, respectively. “The decline in house prices appears to have abated, which means that the contribution from shelter to core inflation next year may stabilize if not increase. Upside inflation risk is also present in healthcare services where insurance prices are expected to rise this October along with a continued upward pressure on labor demand in the sector, thus suggesting higher wage costs.”

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, ”, Shana Orczyk Sissel, Joe Davis Organizations: Economic, Federal, RSM, Dow Jones, Banrion Capital Management, Vanguard Locations: , Wyoming

☆ Americans are about to start losing their jobs - and that will scupper the Fed's dream no-recession scenario, Vanguard top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve said last week that it no longer expects a recession in the US. But unemployment will spike above 4% over the next year, according to Vanguard's top economist Joe Davis. "By that metric, it actually is a recession – because you have very modest job losses," he said. "Well, historically, that has been 100% associated with a recession – now, not necessarily deep in magnitude, but a recession." The central bank has raised interest rates from near-zero to over 5% since March 2022 in a bid to tame soaring prices but pledged to take a data-dependent approach to tightening last week.

Persons: Joe Davis, Davis, Bloomberg's, they'll, there'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Privacy, Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ A North Carolina couple renovated a crumbling 118-year-old manor with an attached chapel in 11 weeks. Finishing touches were being made on the day of their wedding — see how they did it.
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Amanda Goh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

What happens when your dream wedding venue is a crumbling chapel next to your childhood home? Joe and Becky Davis did the unthinkable and renovated it in 11 weeks — in time for their wedding. Becky and Joe Davis on their wedding day, standing outside the entrance to the chapel. "My parents bought it in the '80s, so I spent my whole childhood there until I was a teenager, and then went off to school," Joe told Insider. Joe's parents bought the place in 1988 for around $80,000, Becky told Insider.

Persons: Joe, Becky Davis, Becky, Joe Davis, Maddy Harwell Locations: Washington , North Carolina, Florida

A pivotal jobs reportThe U.S. labor market appears to be slowing. That’s the big question hanging over today’s payroll numbers, which are due for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Forecasters have repeatedly underestimated the strength of the post-pandemic labor market. Instead, employers have added roughly 4.5 million jobs since the central bank started increasing interest rates in March 2022. Another hot jobs number could still influence the Fed’s interest rate policy.

☆ 'Staying the course is the play,' advisor says. 4 tips to help weather market volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

"In the months ahead, volatility may come and go," Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis said last week. "And for all of us, I think it's important to remember to focus on what we can control," he said. By staying invested in the markets, investors have a better chance of success when it comes to achieving their long-term goals, Davis said. There are a few things to keep in mind that can help you stick through market turbulence, advisors say. "It's important to remember that by staying invested, you're playing the game of compounding your returns," Boneparth said.

"I don't think it would qualify as a recession," Powell said of the growth rate penciled in by policymakers. Recessions in the United States have come in many flavors - deep or shallow, short or long. That's twice the annual growth the Fed says the United States will have experienced in 2022, and what it foresees through 2023. The rise in the unemployment rate then was more than the Fed currently anticipates for next year. The Fed sees unemployment rising from 3.7% now to 4.6% in 2023 and remaining almost unchanged for two years after that.

The Philadelphia Phillies are facing the Houston Astros in the 2022 World Series. 2022 World Series scheduleEvery game of the 2022 World Series will air on Fox, and the series will continue until one team wins four games and clinches the championship. Game Date & Time Channel Score Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, Game 1 October 28, 8:03 p.m. ET Fox Philadelphia Phillies 6, Houston Astros 5 Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, Game 2 October 29, 8:03 p.m. ET Fox Houston Astros 5, Philadelphia Phillies 2 Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, Game 3 November 1, 8:03 p.m.

Moscow suspended its participation in the Black Sea deal on Saturday, in response to what it called a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Russian-annexed Crimea. That relative calm is likely to end when Chicago and Paris wheat, the world's two most-active wheat futures contracts, start their trading week on Monday. Purchasing of grain for Black Sea ports in Ukraine has stopped following Russia's decision, a Ukrainian broker said. Ukraine's infrastructure ministry said on Sunday 218 vessels were "effectively blocked" by Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the grain export deal. Market participants are watching to see if the corridor deal can be salvaged, as the U.N. pursues negotiating efforts.

The Philadelphia Phillies will face the Houston Astros in the 2022 World Series on Fox. The 2022 World Series begins October 28, with a potential game seven scheduled for November 5. You can stream the World Series on Fox through services like YouTube TV, Sling TV, and Fubo TV. 2022 World Series scheduleEvery game of the 2022 World Series will air on Fox, and the series will continue until one team wins four games and clinches the championship. Game Date & Time Channel Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros, Game 1 October 28, 8:03 p.m.

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